Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 0.623511 0.721370 0.826271 0.946708 1.080772 1.225034 1.391610
2025-03-09 0.465353 0.590880 0.735186 0.911937 1.121095 1.359198 1.649143
2025-03-16 0.345691 0.482247 0.650508 0.869799 1.144495 1.473538 1.893451
2025-03-23 0.275300 0.421292 0.613624 0.879258 1.229645 1.668690 2.252162
2025-03-30 0.200954 0.341172 0.539980 0.832042 1.238432 1.771329 2.508465
2025-04-06 0.150866 0.284919 0.489509 0.808610 1.275565 1.914040 2.829716
2025-04-13 0.110983 0.235010 0.439497 0.778409 1.299638 2.041674 3.142914
2025-04-20 0.086790 0.205244 0.415261 0.783154 1.374488 2.246388 3.578752
2025-04-27 0.065958 0.175739 0.385842 0.775263 1.429296 2.427218 3.995595
2025-05-04 0.051719 0.155049 0.367901 0.783759 1.510700 2.654343 4.496810
2025-05-11 0.039939 0.135671 0.348393 0.786473 1.582792 2.872972 5.000900
2025-05-18 0.028171 0.111300 0.313139 0.754369 1.591871 2.992852 5.362469
2025-05-25 0.018444 0.087638 0.274072 0.710110 1.578174 3.081350 5.693001
2025-06-01 0.013209 0.074502 0.255673 0.704686 1.634949 3.292207 6.234878
2025-06-08 0.008982 0.061665 0.234040 0.688314 1.669109 3.467573 6.731546
2025-06-15 0.006906 0.055935 0.230011 0.711243 1.783428 3.792561 7.498581
2025-06-22 0.004339 0.044908 0.206520 0.683415 1.791452 3.927798 7.952626
2025-06-29 0.002838 0.037508 0.191392 0.673124 1.834706 4.130554 8.535298
2025-07-06 0.001735 0.030561 0.174642 0.654859 1.858191 4.297607 9.064674
2025-07-13 0.001196 0.026991 0.168873 0.665479 1.947040 4.595224 9.841961
2025-07-20 0.000754 0.023014 0.159528 0.663862 2.007512 4.841443 10.538833
2025-07-27 0.000502 0.020425 0.154984 0.675786 2.101272 5.159803 11.383849
2025-08-03 0.000313 0.017819 0.148957 0.681847 2.181477 5.455751 12.201117